ABC election analyst Antony Green has declared a big Labor win in next year’s federal election within 6 months of counting getting underway.

At 11:00am (AEDT) today, Antony Green’s election computer was showing a 11.9 per cent swing to Labor, and forecasting 92 seats were likely to go its way in the 150-seat Lower House.

Green has forecast the cross bench to become the second major party in Australia projecting the cross bench party to win 24 seats.

“The fearmongering in the Victorian election failed, so I’m predicting a fearmongering campaign on boat people and terrorism to also fail in the federal election,” says Green.

“In fact, for all the tough rhetoric on asylum seekers, visa applications have actually blown out to record numbers on Peter Dutton’s watch.

“The people smugglers are doing more business than ever, with more people now arriving by plane rather than boat, and more of them unlikely to be genuine refugees.”

The Home Affairs Department website shows 27,931 protection visa applications were made in the latest financial year by plane arrivals.

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce hopes some of these arrivals will “volunteer” to work at the airport.

Image: ABC